How Progressivism Turned off Voters — BCB #123

Plus: Tips for surviving the coming days.

By the end of his term in the White House, Trump was historically unpopular. Even now, he’s hardly setting records in the favorability department. So why is this race so close? The answer may have as much to do with the Democratic Party as with Trump. The party seems to be coming to grips with the fact that the key progressive policies they wholeheartedly embraced in recent years may not be what most voters want—even Blue voters.

In a scathing analysis in The Liberal Patriot, Ruy Teixeira argues that the “progressive moment” is ending because it promoted four “terrible ideas” that “voters hate”:

1. Loosening restrictions on illegal immigration

2. Promoting lax law enforcement and tolerance of social disorder

3. Insisting that everyone should look at all issues through the lens of identity politics

4. Telling people fossil fuels are evil and they must stop using them

Teixeira uses polling data to argue that these ideas have caused Democrats to lose support particularly from working-class voters and voters of color. For example, Biden’s decision to “dramatically (loosen) the rules for handling illegal immigrants,” led to a large increase in unauthorized immigration, and in turn voters blame Democrats for “letting the situation get out of control”: 

An astonishing 62 percent of voters in a June CBS News survey supported “starting a new national program to deport all undocumented immigrants currently living in the US illegally,” including 47 percent of blacks, 58 percent of white college graduates, and even 53 percent of Hispanics.

Let’s take a moment to think about how radical this is—a majority of Americans in favor of mass deportation (at least on paper). At the very least, we should be asking hard questions about how we got here. “Racism” is the simple answer, but the problem with that answer is that it doesn’t explain the high support among non-whites. (A similar trend is playing out in European politics.) Simply put: a mass influx of people puts stress on a country, no matter what their race.

On the public safety front, Teixiera argues that progressives made the same mistake. The most enthusiastic supporters of reduced policing are white college-educated liberals. Nonwhite and working-class voters, on the other hand, approach the issue of crime quite differently:

These voters tend to live in areas that have more crime and are therefore unlikely to look kindly on any approach that threatens public safety. A Pew poll found that black and Hispanic Democrats—who are far more urban and working class—are significantly more likely than white Democrats to favor more police funding in their area.

It’s complex, for sure—no racial or ethnic group is monolithic—but perhaps Democrats wrongly assumed they knew what voters of color wanted. Indeed, Democrats have been steadily losing support from non-white voters for over a decade. (This fact also makes the conspiracy theory that Democrats opened the border to win elections laughable, but we digress.)

Teixeira’s core argument is that the Democratic Party paid too much attention to heeding its most extreme elements at the expense of what the majority of constituents believe and want. Of course, this problem isn’t confined to the left. Hard-line Republicans also seem to be in denial that most Americans hold pretty moderate views (as evidenced by abortion rights winning in every state election since Roe v. Wade was overturned).

Ours is certainly a dramatic period in American life, but perhaps we can use this upheaval to lead us to a more realistic politics. Not all good ideas will be popular—Martin Luther King Jr. had a disapproval rating of nearly 75% in the year he was assassinated—and there’s no question that acting on bold ideas is often required for social change. Yet there’s no substitute for being in touch with the people you claim to be serving.

How to handle the next six days

Pretty much everyone seems to be freaking out about the election. No matter what your personal views, if you care at all about politics (which, if you’re reading this newsletter, you likely do) you are probably concerned about what could happen next week. As Amanda Ripley puts it in a recent op-ed:

Right now, a majority of American adults, across both political parties, are worried that the 2024 presidential election could be the end of democracy, according to a new survey by the American Psychological Association. More than 7 in 10 fear the results could lead to violence. The stakes are high, and our ability to control things feels low, which makes humans lose their minds, generally speaking.

Whether you have been losing sleep or have accepted the doom and gloom you feel, Ripley has some advice from a recent conversation with University of California at Riverside psychology professor Kate Sweeny to help you get through the next handful of days. Ripley writes:

The best strategy for managing uncertainty, [Sweeny] and her colleagues have found, is to cultivate optimism, on purpose, and then, at the 11th hour (or on Election Day, in this case), wallow in pessimism.

There’s a paradox behind this advice. Worry is good for us — and also a kind of poison. So, we must somehow try to find just the right dosage. Worry can motivate us to take action — to canvass or donate money or vote. And then, if the worst comes to pass, worry can be protective. People who worry tend to be less shattered by terrible news. They have braced themselves, in other words, for the worst-case scenario.

But worry is also a kind of toxin. Repetitive thoughts about bad outcomes can disrupt sleep, weaken immune responses and lead to depression and illness. Worry can make us think, subconsciously, that we are helping, just by obsessively following the news in our own heads (or on social media). But all the while, it’s slowly draining our spirit and sapping our strength. You can visit worry, but you don’t want to live there.

But how do we achieve this balance? Sweeny offers three steps. First, she says to take action to manage the risk. Do what you can to give your preferred candidate the best chance of winning—and stay away from misinformation, rumors and polls that will stress you out.

Second, Ripley paraphrases, practice “predemption”:

Spend one minute writing down anything not terrible that could eventually come from the other candidate winning. Ten years from now, could it have galvanized a movement? Served as a wake-up call for a new generation?

Finally, distract yourself. Bake. Garden. Meditate. Go for a walk. Play with your dog. Then, after you’ve done all of this work to prepare yourself, you can let some pessimism in, Ripley writes:

Reckon with the worst-case-scenario. This doesn’t mean doomscrolling; it means imagining your side losing and quietly sitting with the feeling for just a couple minutes. Maybe write down what it feels like, where you feel it in your body and what the feeling reminds you of from your past. This way, if the worst does come to pass, you might be able to absorb the blow without being utterly incapacitated.

Quote of the Week

mood of the next ten days

Source: David Sirota